By Professor Doom
One of the weird
things about higher education is how the smart people are fleeing it. Now,
that’s at the grad school level, and I noticed it seemed to start just about
the time I was done with graduate school: my most talented friends were getting
their Ph.D.s, seeing what higher education had to offer, and decided an
academic career was a terrible idea. They headed to the “real world” never to
do anything for education or research. It takes brilliance and character to
conceive “the four years spent getting a Ph.D. was a waste, and I need to do
something different,” and walk away from all that hard work. I acknowledge my
error here.
It may only seem
like a few points every decade, but in terms of statistics, there’s much to be
said about this chart.
First, a minor
digression.
In the olden days,
companies would give “aptitude tests” to people they might possibly hire. This
was a perfectly reasonable thing to do, as the company would invest
considerable resources into training an employee. Thus they were quite
motivated to make sure the employee was “apt,” able to learn the skills the
company needs.
There were
complaints that these aptitude tests were RACIST, and so companies that used
them opened themselves up to huge lawsuits from a government with infinitely
deep pockets to pay for the lawyers to file such lawsuits. Companies not
wanting to fight such an impossible battle got rid of the tests.
The government
forced aptitude tests to disappear but companies still wanted some way to tell
if a person would be able to learn the work they were going to train for. What
to do? Well, the government generously allowed companies to restrict hiring to
“college graduates,” i.e., hiring to only people who had a government-granted
certification of aptness.
Say, does anyone
else see a conflict of interest in government forcing people to not use
anything but government to determine something? Let’s see how the Law of
Unintended Consequences works out here.
I majored in Computer Science
at college. I programmed every day. I went to graduate school for computer
science. I programmed every day.
My first job: I was a computer programmer at
HBO.
I was so bad that they had to send me to
REMEDIAL school for two months to learn enough about computer programming to be
as good as their WORST programmer.
Thus it came to
pass that having a college degree became a “gateway” into the middle
class,
unlike in the past where simple talent and skills were enough. The funny
thing
is, a college degree as it is today doesn’t really help companies much.
Even if
you have a very specific skills degree like “Computer Programming,” if a
company hires you, you’ll likely still have months of training in how to
actually program in a way that the company will find useful. The
collegiate
version of programming focuses on computer languages and skills which
went
obsolete a decade or more ago (because it takes at least 10 years to set
up a college degree program, and anyone who deals with computers knows a
decade may as well be
1,000 years for computers…).
While I blame the
student loan scam for the immense growth in the size of our campuses, the loans
just pay for the degrees…the demand comes because many companies have no other
way to restrict their hires beyond requiring a college degree, and the kids are
told this nearly every day in school.
Now, let’s look at
that chart more carefully, by first considering the variation from each decade,
for the first four decades:
60s to 70s
|
-3.2
|
70s to 80s
|
-3.1
|
80s to 90s
|
-2.1
|
90s to 2000s
|
-1
|
You can dispute
the validity of intelligence tests in general but you can’t dispute the trend
in the above. Certainly you expect to see variation from decade to decade, but
when the variation is always in one direction (down), you must suspect it’s not
random.
It may look like
there’s a bit of convergence, namely that the drop is going to zero, but this
is just how probability works—the proportion of people with IQ between, say
109.1 and 112.2 is roughly the same as the proportion between 102.9 and 103.9
even if the latter is a smaller range of numbers.
More simply said,
in terms of proportion, every decade we lose about same amount of intelligence
in our college graduates. Ok, that still might not be simple enough, but the
gist should be clear to the layman: a college degree means way less than it
used to in terms of intelligence.
Now, let’s
consider the most recent decade, where the drop in IQ is now 2.9. This is a
relatively huge drop compared to the previous decade, about 4 times as much in
terms of proportion.
In short, we’ve
gone from a disturbing but relatively constant drop in the IQ of our college
graduates to a very sharp drop.
Today, in terms
of intelligence, a college graduate now is simply average. How useful is such a
government certification? The price of the degree has gone up dramatically
while the usefulness of that degree to employers has dropped even more so, to
effectively zero. You could just get a random guy off the street and expect
average intelligence, after all.
I’m saddened by
the loss of our most intelligent people in graduate school: we’re losing our
best and brightest because they’re smart enough to see quickly that higher
education is a dying system that would merely exploit them…this does not bode
well for humanity, as this will impact the advancement of human knowledge.
Alas, the issues
are even bigger than what’s happened in graduate school:
To say we're well into the
territory of diminishing returns is to understate the problem--we're past the
point of negative returns. Most Americans in college today are not benefiting
from being there. They're foregoing work to accrue debt for degrees that, if
they increase earning power at all, do so only marginally and they're picking
up an unhelpful sense of entitlement in the process.
While there is truth in the above, I’m more
concerned by the suddenly accelerating drop in IQ of our college graduates in
the last decade. At this pace, it’s reasonable to conjecture that very soon a college graduate will have below average
intelligence. It’ll be perfectly clear then that the smart people aren’t
just leaving graduate school, they’re fleeing college in general.
It’s a big problem for humanity that our
scholars will no longer represent the smartest people humanity has to offer.
It’s a bigger problem for humans that having a college degree will soon mean
that you’re of below average intelligence.
If the trend
continues, and all evidence says it will, by next decade having a college
degree will be telling your employer: “I was stupid enough to get a degree and
you should not hire me.”
Once again, we see
the Law of Unintended Consequences in action, as turning higher education into
a government program to determine who is qualified to have a good job will
instead determine who is unqualified.
That our kids are
going in debt for a certification of incompetence is insult to the injury. End the student loan
scam.
www.professorconfess.blogspot.com
Posted by ΛΕΟΝΙΔΑΣ